December 16, 2025
Predictions are always fraught; technology shifts, policy windows open and close, and market signals rarely move in straight lines. But part of building a forward-leaning bidirectional charging ecosystem is being willing to look ahead, acknowledge the uncertainty, and still offer a view of where things are headed.
So with equal parts humility and conviction, I’m stepping out with a set of bold projections for bidirectional charging in 2026. These aren’t certainties; they’re informed expectations shaped by decades of work in this space and a close read of where policy, standards, and industry commitments are converging. My goal is simple: to spark conversation, test assumptions, and help us collectively anticipate the opportunities and obstacles that will define the next phase of bidirectional charging.
Introduction
If 2025 showed that bidirectional charging can scale, 2026 will show that the grid simply cannot succeed without it. Utilities are already straining under rapidly rising loads, regulators are scrambling to keep rates from climbing, and after years of fragmentation, the technology ecosystem is finally aligning. Bidirectional charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) are no longer fringe innovations; they are becoming foundational to the reliability and affordability of the modern grid.
The most striking shift heading into 2026 is conceptual rather than technical: the conversation is no longer about whether V2G and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) are viable. It’s about how quickly industry, utilities, and regulators can clear the remaining barriers, because the grid flexibility these technologies offer is becoming essential, not optional.
As we close out 2025, here are my top projections for the coming year. Taken together, they point to one conclusion: 2026 will be the inflection point where V2G becomes a mainstream grid resource, and the early adopters gain an undeniable strategic advantage.
Prediction #1: The First U.S. V2G-AC System Will Hit the Market
While the debate between V2G-DC and V2G-AC will continue, as I explored in Highway to Scale: Why the AC/DC Debate is Slowing Down V2G, 2025 delivered the clearest signals yet that V2G-AC for residential light-duty vehicles is finally within reach. Europe and parts of Asia have already demonstrated what’s possible, and the U.S. market is now catching up as technology, product design, and certification frameworks begin to align. That alignment becomes more visible in 2026.
Until recently, V2G-AC solutions were limited to small pilot deployments in the U.S., not because of any fundamental barrier, but because the underlying technology and integration pathways were still maturing. That picture is changing. On board grid-interactive inverter platforms, AC-coupled energy management architectures, and the supporting control software have all advanced to a point where commercial deployment is now viable.
Equally important, manufacturers now have a workable U.S. certification avenue. UL 1741 Supplement C (SC), the next major update expected to formally incorporate AC bidirectional functionality, is anticipated to be completed in early 2026. But because it will not be finalized in time for same-year product certification, companies preparing to launch AC bidirectional offerings in 2026 are expected to certify through the existing UL 1741 Certification Requirement Decision (CRD). The CRD provides a clear, testable pathway for AC export capability today, while the SC update solidifies the long-term pathway that will follow.
This opens the door for meaningful progress. Industry insiders believe that V2G-AC can reduce cost and complexity by leveraging onboard inverter capabilities, expand the addressable market for residential flexibility, and give utilities a standardized, verifiable pathway to approve interconnections for paired EV–EVSE systems. In short, the convergence of maturing technology and a viable certification route is setting the stage for the first commercial V2G-AC products in the U.S. As V2G News reported from the October 2025 V2G Forum, Stellantis and its partners showcased the first standards-based V2G-AC system demonstration, signaling the technology’s readiness.
For these reasons, I expect 2026 to see the introduction of the first commercial, standards-based V2G-AC offering for light-duty vehicles in the United States, certified under the UL 1741 CRD, with the UL 1741 SC pathway coming into focus shortly thereafter. Once that first product arrives, momentum will build quickly, reshaping expectations for residential flexibility and positioning EVs as core distributed energy resources.
Prediction #2: The U.S. Will Install 100 MW of School Bus V2G Capacity
If there is one V2G application poised for real scale in 2026, it’s the electric school bus segment. The operational profile, long dwell times, predictable schedules, large battery packs, and community support make school buses uniquely well-suited to provide reliable grid services.
Unlike earlier years, V2G school buses are no longer theoretical. Multiple manufacturers now sell commercially available bidirectional electric school buses, and the market includes several fully certified DC bidirectional chargers capable of supporting fleet operations. This means fleet operators can finally plan around proven technology rather than pilots.
That shift is already visible. Companies such as Highland Electric Fleets, First Student, and Zūm have signaled major plans to begin deploying bidirectional infrastructure at scale. Their procurement strategies increasingly incorporate V2G-ready buses and chargers as standard, not optional, features. And utilities, especially in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and California, are now designing programs with explicit V2G dispatchability in mind, structured around fleet operational realities.
In 2026, school buses will form the backbone of early V2G capacity in the United States. Whether the national total lands at 90 MW or 130 MW, the directional signal is unmistakable: school bus V2G is transitioning from demonstration to dependable grid resource. Fleet operators, aggregators, and utilities are aligning around the same conclusion: school buses will anchor the first wave of scaled bidirectional deployments.
Prediction #3: Five States Set the Stage for Bidirectional Charging to Scale
V2G doesn’t suffer from a technology gap; it suffers from a policy and market alignment gap. Scaling requires three pillars to move in sync: interconnection, compensation, and infrastructure incentives. In 2026, at least five states will advance all three, creating the conditions for V2G to expand well beyond pilots.
Interconnection | Maryland’s recent ruling, California’s Rule 21 updates, and New York’s ongoing work are showing what a practical, export-enabled V2G pathway looks like. These early efforts reflect the controllable, dispatchable nature of bidirectional EVs and are providing templates other states can adopt. By mid-2026, we expect at least five additional states to formalize streamlined, V2G-ready interconnection options. |
| Compensation | The VPP model is becoming the economic engine for bidirectional charging. As utilities retool their demand-response and peak-reduction strategies around flexible resources, EVs are increasingly recognized as dispatchable storage, capable of delivering capacity, distribution support, and seasonal reliability. Several states are preparing to integrate V2G into utility-led VPP programs in 2026, creating clearer and more durable revenue streams for fleets and eventually residential customers. |
| Infrastructure Incentives | States are also beginning to address the incremental cost of bidirectional readiness. Rather than treating V2G as a niche add-on, regulators are providing targeted support for chargers and integration hardware that enable export. These early incentive structures are growing, and by late 2026 we expect more programs that explicitly support bidirectional-capable EVSE deployments. |
Together, these three pillars signal that V2G is crossing from pilot to product. Interconnection pathways are solidifying, compensation mechanisms are becoming real, and incentives are lowering the upfront costs of bidirectional infrastructure.
The effects compound quickly:
Fleets begin budgeting around grid-service revenue.
- Automakers see bidirectional readiness as a competitive differentiator.
- Utilities incorporate mobile storage into reliability and load-management planning.
- Regulators integrate EV-based flexibility into resource and distribution-system modeling.
In short, V2G shifts from supporting the grid to shaping it, and 2026 becomes the year when five states catalyze that transition.
Steve’s Closing Thoughts
If 2024 and 2025 were about proving V2G works, 2026 will be about proving that we can’t meet our reliability and decarbonization goals without it. The conversation is shifting from “Can EVs support the grid?” to “How fast can we integrate them?”
We enter the new year with stronger technology, clearer certification pathways, and more aligned stakeholders than at any point in the past decade. Automakers are bringing bidirectional capabilities into mainstream product planning. Utilities are designing programs around flexibility rather than simply managing load. States are removing interconnection barriers and beginning to pay for actual grid services. And fleets, the earliest and most practical V2G adopters, are preparing to deploy at scale.
The shift will be unmistakable. By the end of 2026, early movers, fleets, automakers, utilities, states, aggregators, will be defining the contours of a new market that treats EVs as part of the grid, not simply connected to it. Those who hesitate will spend the next decade trying to retrofit strategies, rebuild trust, and catch up to a value chain that has already started moving.
The simple but provocative truth is this: The grid won’t reach its reliability, affordability, or decarbonization goals without bidirectional EVs. 2026 is the first year we start acting like that’s true!
